For the week I went 28-18 vs the spread. That's not too shabby.
Some days are complete disasters, some days like yesterday, are very good.
Very often, I parlay bets into two, three, and four team parlays. I generally don't go beyond that because casinos are just killing bettors who tackle bigger parlays. The first parlay card I ever filled out was a five team football bet. I hadn't even looked at the payoffs- so when the gal handed me 520 dollars for my 20 dollar bet- I was hooked.
True odds on a 5 team parlay are 32-1. So, winning 500 bucks after you gave the book 20 to hold means you got paid 25 for one.
You lost 25% somewhere. That's a lot of juice. The other day, I actually saw an online sportsbook offering 20-1 on 5 team bets. That is a horrendous 35% haircut.
Most books are shaving 4 team parlays by 25% as well.
Maybe the greatest handicapper in the world can defeat that but they will lose 35% every time they win. Imagine playing in a poker game where the house rakes 100 dollars from every 300 dollar pot. Pretty soon all the players are broke.
So the only way to mitigate this thievery is to out handicap the line or simply not use large parlays. I use a combination of both methods.
I tend to do two team bets and four team bets. I bet a lot of straight bets when I think the game is a cinch. Yesterday I did that with Memphis. I also will take a money line if a team I like is a small dog and the line is two points or less. Adding a +105 or +110 team to a ticket of -110 teams helps quite a bit. Yesterday I made an additional 70 dollars on a ticket by adding the Clippers money line (if only I had the courage to add Cleavage on the money line). This helps mitigate the heavy juice these sports books take.
I'll even go further. I used a parlay calculator to price a 4 team bet and caught my sportsbook stealing an extra 13 bucks. I rechecked with another calculator and got the same result.
If you live in Canada or anywhere outside the US the absolute best sports book with fair odds is Pinnacle Sports. The US, IRS, and banks were demanding records from bettors in the US- so Pinnacle just said fuck you to the US and all of its regulations. You can't bet there. It is a shame.
Land of the free- just so long as you payoff the government.
I liked a few bets today like the LA Kings and I wanted to see the over in the Florida Panthers game. I have been running extremely well taking the overs anytime Florida or Minnesota are home. It has become a huge angle for me the last month or so.
Right now, Calgary is kicking some ass. They clobbered the Blues at home and although this is a grudge match, I still like Calgary to whip the Blues at +120. They may be a little leg weary from the ass kicking they administered last night.
When Calgary plays another Canadien team look out.
My favorite play tonight is Carolina and Tittsburgh both on the puck line. Carolina has beat up some pretty good teams and sits close to the top in it's division. The Kraken are at Tittsburgh- about to feel some pain.
You can get Carolina for about +110. Tittsburgh for about -130.
Best of luck!
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