For the Record

89-60-4 v. the spread from 9/15/15 thru 9/26/16.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

The Week's Best Play, The Best 1-3 Football Team of the Year- BYU

I generally bet in three increments. I reserve the highest limit for only a few games a year. One of those contests happens on Friday.

BYU is at home giving the Toledo Rockets -3.5.

Toledo is a good team having rung up big victories against three cupcakes, Ark State, Maine, and Fresno State.

BYU is a very good team. They came back in their initial conest and beat a very good Arizona team, lost to ranked foes, Utah, UCLA, and W. Virginia. All three losses were three points or less. These teams are not cupcakes. They are among the best in the land.

Toledo looks great on paper. You always look tough beating up on the girls. BYU is no little girl.

I see BYU winning this by 14 or better. They have covered 4 in a row, their bowl season is on the line, and they are hungry. Invading Toledo doesn't need the game and it would be a shock to see them win this. I give them a 10% chance of covering this despite the low line.

This is a 3 star play. I am playing ON BYU.

I am also playing Stanford +3 for the very same reasons vs. the Washington Huskies. Strength of schedule. I see Stanford winning this outright.

Best of luck to Troy or any other ne'er do well that stumbles in here.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Split Decision Sat, Big Win on Sunday

I went 4-4 on Saturday with a push on Boise St.
Covering easily were dogs Colorado and Arizona. Stanford and Ball St struggled a bit.

A strange thing happened to me on Sunday morning. The more I looked at NFL lines the more I hated them.

I should tell you most betters I like favorites and the over totals. When I dislike lines as much as I did Saturday morning- it means dogs are covering. I loaded up the truck and had a huge day- which would have been even larger- had I checked my ticket after the ticket writer re-wrote it after screwing it up the first time. He left Buffalo off and added the Jets.

Buffalo was a desperate 0-2 team playing at home. You cannot go 0-3 and certainly not 0-4 and have any shot at the playoffs. There are going to be very desperate 0-3 teams this week. I would suggest not playing against them this week- because their seasons are really on the line. If they are horrible, like Chicago, they may not have the talent to cover the spread. Other squads- like a Redskins team that desperately upset the Giants- have talent.

I love the Eagles and North Dakota St star Carson Wentz. I could not believe that at 2-0 that they were a home dog v Pittsburgh. That line was completely blown by linesmakers. Ridiculous. A lot of sharp bettors made huge scores.

The Rams, despite a very potent offense, had been shut out at SF and shut down at home v the Seahawks although they won. I felt as though they could beat a desperate Tampa team but I was worried about the spread. So I played that game over 41. I think it was the highest scoring game of the day.

My disaster dujour was Carolina getting their asses kicked at home by a backup QB and backup RB via the Minnesota Vikings. Go figure. Carolina goes 15-1 last year mostly without Kelvin Benjamin who apparently was a no show yesterday- and this Carolina team has me shaking my head.

My big play of the day was Eagles + 3.5 and Dallas -6.5. I have a friend who bet 1000 bucks after I gave him this two team parlay.

I bet a 150 dollar 6 team round robin two team parlay. Had the ticket writer written the ticket right- it would have been a monster 1200 dollar winner. Since I did not catch the error- the ticket is only worth 550 or so.

My other ticket was Rams over, Eagles, and Dallas.

For the day then I went 7-4. Losing Carolina, Lions, Jets, and the over in the Titans game.

Winners were Rams and over, Philly, Dallas, Buffalo even though I didn't have it, Broncos, Lions over.

I am sorry I didn't post it prior to game time. The only one reading this blog is Troy and he wasn't betting anything anyway.

I hate tonite's game. If forced to play, I like it under 54 only because these teams play each other twice a year and they know each other well. Unfortunately, with all of the talent and no defense- you will probably sweat that total all the way to the end.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Friday and Saturday College Leans, 09/23

I actually went 3-0 last night taking Clemson in the 1st half. I cruised to easy victories everywhere which rarely happens. The hoodie at home is almost unbeatable. Houston couldn't even score.

I am always careful around week 4. Teams watch game film and make adjustments. Lines makers are selecting lines based on what they think the public will do. Heavy favorites like Louisville are given huge numbers to cover. In the case of Louisville- they are simply a freight train right now- covering every spread easily.

First up is Boise St. at Oregon St. BSU is a 13 point favorite. Oregon St plays in the Pac 12, lost to Minnesota on the road by 7. BSU damn near found a way to lose at Wazzou at home. You can damn sure bet Oregon State watched that film. The play is Oregon St. and the points- If I get a 450+ m/l- I am going to make a small bet there as well.

Colorado at Oregon -10.5. I don't like Oregon. I think their defense is horrible and will probably allow Colorado to hang in the game. I am going to take the points and make another small money line bet if I can get 350+.

Tulsa -14 at Fresno. Fresno State looks horrible. Maybe they can make a game of this but I doubt it...laying the points.

One of my favorites is Army -13.5 at Buffalo. Army is actually looking like a very good team.

Ball State just keeps covering. Sticking with them at Florida Atlantic -3.

Taking S. Carolina +2.5 at Kentucky on the money line.

Louisville -26.5 at Marshall. Gawd I love this game. I'll tell you why. Louisville looks unstoppable having just beat Florida State (ranked 3) and now playing Marshall with number 5- Clemson up next week. Marshall coming off a total ass kicking to a MAC team last week. It is so difficult not to let up here a little bit and you sure as hell don't want your quarterback going down because he is the clear cut Heisman winner easily and a National Championship is on the line- Having said all of that- I expect Marshall to cover. But the public is so fanatical right now I am going to wait until I get a 28.5 plus number at game time.

Stanford -3 at UCLA. Stanford has covered two v tougher. UCLA is 0-3 v the spread and might not be as good as everyone thought.

I cannot believe I am actually playing ON UNLV. I have made a living betting against that program. But a chance for an easy win v Idaho looks pretty good. I have the number at -15. I am laying the points but I sure would like 14.

Number 8 Washington -13 v Arizona. Washington has played three cupcakes. I am suspicious of their ranking although Coach Pete knows his shit. I watched Az climb back into the BYU game at home and nearly win it. BYU is a seriously good team. I'm taking 13 and Arizona.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Thursday Nite 09/22/16

Eagles covered easily against Chicago.

Tonite's game pits Houston +1 v New England at home. The total is listed at 40.5. I spent quite a deal of time with this one.

I am suspicious of both QB's but I give the edge to Houston's Osweiler. New England is starting a 3rd stringer that I can't find a lot of data on. Brissett threw 6 passes in his last game. His back up is Julian Edelman, a receiver, because they have no other options at QB.

The league's leading TE- Gronkowski is a game time decision for the Patriots. There are three problems with Gronk even if he does start. It's doubtful he will be 100%, he has been on the shelf for 3 weeks and I doubt he will play a majority of downs even if he does go and then you gotta ask...can this new QB get him the ball?

Osweiler is no monster either, garnering a 70.0 pass rating over two games v avg pass defenses. Edge to the under.

Both teams have good rushers. L. Blount and Lamar Miller. Both are top ten rushers with very similar stats. You get the feeling this is gonna be a time consuming- run and short pass play kind of game.

Houston has a top 5 defense against crappy offenses....Patriots have a lower rated defense against much better offenses. I think the two teams are pretty evenly matched as far as defenses go.

I look for an edge. This looks like a grinding on the ground game with short passes. Both coaches will try and keep their QB's throwing high completion, short passes. I just don't see a bombs away game. However, because these QB's are so inexperienced- I worry about Pick 6's. Despite all of that-

Edge to the under 40.5. If forced to play either side I take Belichick and the Pats because that coach is a miracle worker.

Clemson at Georgia Tech

Both teams 3-0 v weak schedules. Clemson beat G-tech by 19 at home last year. Georgia Tech is a 10 point home dog and the smart money is sailing in on them. The total is 57.5.

Clemson played for a national championship last year- barely losing to Alabama. Georgia Tech had a terrible losing season last year-

Clemson -10.

Monday, September 19, 2016

The Monday Morning Report

I went 6-5 over college football this weekend. 3-1 in the NFL.

Michigan won but did not cover. That cost me some dough. Miami looked very tough- easily disposing of App State. Kentucky just missed, La Tech just missed and so did the under in the GT game. All of those sans App State were very close, a field goal here or there and I would have had a wonderful weekend.

Easily covering were Army, Navy, Central Michigan, Akron, San Diego State, and the under in the UMass game.

In NFL action, Carolina disposed of the 49ers very predictably, the Texans and the Falcons won outright and my only loser was the over in the Saints game. I am still shaking my head and wondering where in the hell those two teams found some defense. And no offense. The Saints. My team. Finding a way to lose every Sunday.

I have the Eagles +3 v the Bears tonite. Chicago finds a way to lose, just like the Saints do.

Friday, September 16, 2016

College Football, Week 3

Credibility is everything when trying to sort out the weekly mystery. I spend a lot of time because I actually bet these games. I employ an anti-herd mentality. Herds get slaughtered- so when evaluating a game I don't listen to the herd. Because of that I was able to nail Houston and Wisconsin as huge home dogs. I bet them at +400 on the money line. The herd loved Oklahoma and LSU. The same bullshit is going on with Miami v App State. The herd loves Miami. So you may get your behind kicked from time to time- but that's why they call it gambling or as the old timer who taught me used to say- "investing."

1. I think when a team does nothing wrong, nearly beats Tenn. on the road and should have, then comes home in a letdown spot with a look ahead game and covers against Old Dom. it's time to show App State some respect. I know it's big old bad Miami. I'm gonna show respect. App St. +3.5. Going with winner until proven otherwise.

2. Ark St. at Utah St. I originally liked Utah State here coming off the big loss to USC. Ark State hasn't exactly played cupcakes either and this game means a lot. I think both these teams are better than they have shown although I think they are regressing. The more I looked at this game- the more I liked the 9 points the Red Wolves are getting. Ark State +9.

3. I also like the 17.5 points Akron is getting at We Are Marshall. Akron is a decent winning program and to be honest I saw this game as -7. Marshall hasn't whipped any monsters. So screw it- taking 17.5 and the Zips.

4. I am UNDER 42.5 Vandy at Ga. Tech. No offense, Lotsa defense. Always worry about defensive scores.

5. I am UNDER 47.5 in the UMASSacre-FIU tilt for the same reasons.

6. Michigan is hitting on all cylinders right now and may be as good as 'bama right now. I am uber suspicious of Colorado and not ready to jump on their bandwagon yet. One of my fav plays all week- I am doubling up, laying the points. Mich. -20.

7. I have made a fortune on NIU. But this team is regressing while San Diego State is cresting-bringing a huge winning streak and the best runner in school history. Laying the points. SDSU -10.5 

8. My biggest loss last week was New Mexico. I nearly murdered my television- in fact I switched channels. New Mexico State has been such a crappy program for so long- I suppose they had to beat somebody sometime. UTEP beat them by 16. It won't be at Kentucky this week. Laying the points, Kentucky -21.

Item odd. Navy opened with a 48 total which has moved 5 points to 43.5 v Tulane. Early money sailing in and down. FWIW.

9. Army -3.5 at UTEP. 

I said this year that every time I see a total 70 and over, I am taking it under. I would love to know the number of games as a percentage that can cover 11 scores or more but still lacking the requisite courage. Interesting.

3 dogs, 4 favs, and two unders. BOL everyone.

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Tuesday Update

Well we went 2-1 for my three NFL plays opening week. The Rams looked absolutely horrible last night- the QB was terrible.

Working on Thurs-Sat college football plays. Should have them up by tomorrow.